Federal election 2022: Mackellar and Warringah how the votes fell

MP Jason Falinski's face says it all. Chatting to him at one of the many polling places he will visit on Saturday in a long day of canvassing Mackellar voters, he looks exhausted and beleaguered, without his usual confident swagger. He looks like he thinks he will lose.

This is significant, for Mackellar has long been considered one of the safest conservative party seats in Australia, in Liberal hands since it was proclaimed 73 years ago. Even Bronwyn Bishop's helicopter scandal did not give it the wobbles.

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And Liberal party playmakers had seemed so confident about winning this beautiful neck of the woods. While former Prime Ministers Tony Abbott and John Howard were both rolled out next door in Warringah for Katherine Deves, Falinski had no such luminaries strutting the streets with him.

At that poll booth at Narraweena Public School on Saturday morning, Falinski had inexplicably placed himself within shouting distance of charismatic chef "Fast Ed" Halmagyi, who was busy spruiking his opponent, Dr Sophie Scamps.

Falinski won that poll booth, with 888 to 755 first preferences - but it saw a swing (11.68%, compared to 11.74% across the electorate) against him.

Indeed, he won slightly more first preferences overall - 34,821 versus Scamps' 33,142. But when preferences were factored in from Labor and the Greens, the result was 44,625 (52.9%) to Scamps and 39,736 for Falinski (47.1%).

So, where did he lose it? His best results came from the inner electorate - Belrose, Frenchs Forest and Terrey Hills. His worst? Beachside locations, particularly Scamps' home town of Avalon, as well as Bilgola Plateau, Newport and Dee Why.

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He has taken the loss on the chin, telling the Northern Beaches Review he is looking forward to being a husband (to industrial relations commissioner Nichola Constant) and father for awhile.

"Dr Sophie" is now in the spotlight. Her team were doing it for love not money; even the campaign managers were unpaid and joined - same as Scamps - because they were frustrated by a lack of progress, particularly on climate change.

On Saturday night, even after Scamps had made her joyful acceptance speech, many still seemed astounded that they had been successful.

"It is absolutely incredible," Scamps told the NBR.

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With a croaky voice after weeks of campaigning, she said it was an exciting time. "People have stood up knowing that they deserve to be heard and to be genuinely represented," she said. "It's a win for democracy and a win for our future."

Next door in Warringah, the numbers told an even bigger story.

With a two per cent first preference swing to her, Steggall received almost 10,000 more votes than Deves - 35,800 versus 26,393.

With second preferences taken into account, the swing to her became 3.85 per cent, a remarkable effort considering the many pundits - she said - who had called her a "flash in the pan". Across the entire electorate, just one small booth - in Frenchs Forest - didn't give her more votes, with 189 compared to 190. (In 2019, it had been six.)

Local campaigns were marred by mud slinging on both sides. There were red paint splattered posters, graffitied offices, volunteer stoushes and social media sledging.

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Early "meet the voter" events and debates saw candidates talk over one another, yelling from the crowds and in Deves' case, media bans - highly unorthodox when candidates are usually keen to get the message out.

On election day, when Steggall and Deves happened to turn up to one poll booth at the same time, they ignored each other, despite being just metres apart.

This may have been because Deves was accompanied by Steggall's ex-husband's new wife Bridie Nolan. It's complicated, with Steggall telling the NBR: "I find it personally distasteful that my opponent and the Liberal campaign are using extended members of my separated family."

The NBR met all of the candidates on the hustings - except the ghost candidate for One Nation, Darren Dickson, who was represented on his How to Vote material by an unknown woman. They all seemed decent, motivated people.

Young Greens candidate Ethan Hrnjak - just 18 years old and standing for Mackellar to represent his often silenced generation - was impressive and articulate in debates. Local councillor Kristyn Glanville, also representing the Greens, and, she said, choice in a robust democracy.

UAP candidates Andrew Robertson and Christopher Ball both nominated for the party because they felt so aggrieved by lockdowns and forced vaccinations; Ball emailed us afterwards to say he felt "enriched by the whole experience".

And Jason Falinski, a lifelong local losing his seat after six years. The NBR always found him passionate about both community and policy issues, especially the economy and housing, and generous with his time. We suspect he will eventually be back in some capacity.

Scamps said the outgoing MP had left a "lovely" voicemail for her after he conceded. "He just said congratulations on a well-fought contest and you're now my representative so I wish you all the best and I hope it goes well. It was lovely," she said.

It is now clear that although he may have not taken his seat for granted, his party sure did, seen in their lack of support for Falinski in Mackellar and their captain's choice of a divisive and controversial candidate in Deves in Warringah.

This is something Steggall feels passionate about. After declaring victory, she told the NBR that voters were sick of politicians who "turned up every three years to ask them for their vote - then asked them to go away again and be quiet while they went to Canberra and got on with their games - that really stupid stuff that goes on between the major parties."

She added: "Communities have woken up to that and said, 'actually, no, that's not how we want to be represented; we want something different. It's a real game changer."

With both "teal independents" highlighting community, having Steggall in Warringah helped enormously during her campaign, Scamps said.

"People had seen what happened next door," she said. "They had seen how hard Zali works for her community and also the fact she had led the way, led the national conversation on climate and other issues."

The day after being elected, Scamps met the NBR at Collaroy Beach to discuss how she was feeling.

"I'm looking forward to getting a federal integrity commission. I'm looking forward to strengthening our democracy and I'm looking forward to getting action on climate," she laughed. "Getting some action, getting some change, it's going to be exciting."

Steggall is also already planning for change, publicly releasing a action plan the day after her victory. "Welcome to the caring, collaborative community-backed crossbench," she said.

Election night, taking the podium in front of an adoring, dancing, whooping crowd, an "actually quite emotional" Steggall said it was time for a "new wave of politics".

"We want a parliament that is respectful, that debates the ideas, that looks to the future, puts in place policies that will help our kids and our grand-kids and will look to future generations," she said.

"The fear and smear that we've had in politics for too long has to be over.

"The athlete in me - the Olympian - I want to win! And we have the smart people and we have the technology and we have the opportunity. But at the moment we lack the political will from the major parties and in government and communities are saying 'it's time for a new style of politics'. We need to change the climate in Canberra if we want to have positive, future-focused policies and that is what Warringah started in 2019!"

She also spoke of the "rollercoaster ride" she had been on for the past three years. "There were a lot of naysayers and doubters who thought this was just a flash in the pan but what we've shown is a movement grows because positivity and a vision for the future where we all do better is something we all look for and the community wants."

In the last year, she said she had attended 18 community forums, presented petitions, received 30,000 emails and taken on 26,000 cases to help people. "An MP is there to serve their community - too many career politicians have forgotten what the job is about," she said. "It is not about your political ambition to make it to the front bench."

While vote counting is continuing, so far 15 seats nationally have been won by candidates outside the two major parties.

The move to independents and other non-majors is a sign of just how out-of-touch Prime Minister Scott Morrison and the Coalition have been, Scamps said.

"People, broadly across the country, were feeling like there was a lack of leadership on the really important issues, like climate, integrity, gender equity and also, in this area, health," she said.

"The teachers are striking, the nurses are striking, the midwives are striking, all those service industries are at breaking point. There's the cost of living and the housing unaffordability, that's a huge issue for people."

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Steggall said she was so excited about what the future held. "My team has said I was looking for more friends in Canberra and this election has delivered a bunch of strong, intelligent women for me!" she laughed.

"They are amazing women: professional, capable, qualified, caring, committed to their communities. And they have copped a barrage of negativity and criticism and attacks since declaring to run for their seats. It's a huge gamble to do that without a party machine behind you.

"It's incredibly exciting to know that Warringah in 2019 inspired so many other communities to change the status quo."

Data at 5pm on Wednesday, May 25

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